PEDv and pork prices

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PEDv and pork prices

Postby Tasso » Sun May 04, 2014 10:42 pm

We're in the midst of an outbreak of PEDv (porcine epidemic diarrhea virus) that has been killing large number of young piglets in the US and in Canada since it was first confirmed in May of last year. Estimates I've seen place deaths due to PEDv at 7 to 10 million. Besides creating a serious economic problem for affected pork producers, consumers are also affected. Pork prices have been steadily climbing over that period.

As an example, a year ago before the outbreak, I could buy boneless whole pork shoulder for $1.89 a pound at Costco warehouse stores in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Now the price at Costco is $2.35 a pound. That's a 24% increase in price. Articles I've read said it could go 10 to 20 percent higher.

The last time I bought whole fresh pork belly from a specialty butcher in my area was in late 2011. The price was $3.29 a pound. Smaller portions of pork belly at Asian stores at that time were around $2.49 a pound. Now whole pork bellies in these parts are going for $4.49 a pound with the skin on, $4.59 a pound skin off. The nearest Asian store had smaller 1 lb packages for $3.49 a pound two weeks ago.

All other cuts are affected too, of course, but I haven't tracked their prices over time. Strangely, the prices of commercial hams and sausages haven't been greatly affected yet, as far as I can tell. They are selling for about the same price, or just a few cents a pound higher, than they were a year ago. The producers must be affected by increases in pork prices due to PEDv too, but I guess the manufacturers have been eating the cost increase so far.

I know there have been outbreaks of PEDv in the UK in the past, but I don't believe there is any outbreak there currently. So this question is primarily for the US and Canada-based members. What kind of price increases for pork are you seeing in your area? Is it affecting your sausage making and meat curing habits?
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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby DiggingDogFarm » Mon May 05, 2014 1:26 am

Butts are up 40% here.



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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby Tasso » Mon May 05, 2014 3:51 am

Ouch! I guess I should be thankful that my prices haven't risen that much here. Yet. Then again, I've only checked the prices at Costco, since that's the only place I normally buy butts. It could be a different story at butcher shops and grocery stores.

The big national chain grocery stores around here only sell butts that have been "enhanced" with a "up to 12%" solution of brine, so I never buy from them. High end stores like Whole Foods charge prices that I could never afford anyway, so I'm not sure how the prices at those stores have changed.
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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby BriCan » Mon May 05, 2014 7:21 am

I do hope you are 'all' holding om to your hats or whatever :cry:

We just had a spike on of all days April 1st, so I had to phone the slaughterhouse with the question .... are you raising the prices due to the fact it was Easter within a short time :shock:

After spending twenty minuets taking back and forth I had to ask the time honored question .... 'can I hold to see this out (absorb the increase now and being able to recoup on the down swing) The answer came back fast... I was told that if I did not increase my prices right now I would not be in business too much longer :| :(

This from May 1st from the Canadian Press ...

TORONTO – Canadian shoppers will face another hike in meat prices this month as Maple Leaf Foods Inc. responds to the widespread impact of a virus in the U.S. hog industry.

The Toronto-based meat processor, which makes bacon, hot dogs and deli meats, said Thursday that rising costs have forced it to act quickly to improve its margins.

“We are reasonably confident that the entire market will react in similar ways, in the first instance, because the cost increases are an industry-wide issue,” president and CEO Michael McCain said in a conference call with analysts, noting that hog costs spiked 60 per cent in the quarter.


My supplier is telling me we will have more price increases and it will be at least a year to a year and half before any price decrees

Prices to myself are up no less that 60% :cry: :cry:

Bone in pork legs was costing $1.09 lb -- now are costing $3.09 lb -- Rib in rind on bellies was costing $1.49 lb a year ago -- now we are looking at $3.99 lb

The saving grace on this that because that I produce specialty products that are of a high quality there is a demand for the bacon and sausage that I produce

To weather this storm one truly has to be good at what they do or as in most cases produce sh*t that gets into the supermarkets
But what do I know
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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby quietwatersfarm » Mon May 05, 2014 10:38 am

youch!

what a nightmare...

presumably some conspiracy theories circulating?
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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby Tasso » Mon May 05, 2014 2:08 pm

Wow, BriCan, those are some hefty increases on the wholesale side. I suspect your supplier is right that the industry as a whole will have no choice but to pass on the costs to consumers.
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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby Tasso » Mon May 05, 2014 3:07 pm

quietwatersfarm wrote:presumably some conspiracy theories circulating?


I haven't heard any yet. It wouldn't surprise me to hear someone suggest bio-terrorism to gain international political, military, or trade advantage for a foreign sovereign government or a trade association that stood to gain thereby. A coalition of pork producers conspiring to push product prices higher? Agents of commodities investors seeking higher profits in the exchange markets? A superpower wanting to cripple the nutritional capacity of the North American population in preparation for invasion?

Then I'm sure the ever-popular New World Order globalist agenda to institute an authoritarian world government could be given some play.

The work of militant porcophobes, or a rogue environmentalist group with even lower ethical standards than PETA?

Can you think of any others?
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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby DiggingDogFarm » Tue May 06, 2014 12:40 am

I wanted to cure and smoke a couple whole hams.
I called to check prices earlier today.
The price is more than double what it was a year ago.....$1.50 to $3.75
I think I'll be smoking more turkeys for the foreseeable future!!! LOL

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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby BriCan » Tue May 06, 2014 2:55 am

quietwatersfarm wrote:presumably some conspiracy theories circulating?


Not as yet nor do I expect any in the foreseeable future; there was an indication just before Christmas that pork prices was going to take a hike but as usual it was taken with a grain of salt. We knew our friends down south had a problem and it was thought that the powers to be would/could take care of the said problem and the poor neighbors to the north would not have a problem only just the fact that our prices would rise due to the increase of sales of pork heading south.

Problem was it has got into Ontario :cry: :cry:

The other part of this equation is that gas (petrol) prices have started to rise earlier than normal, Fish prices have taken a vast hike -- beef, lamb and poultry are also on the move -- Sorry Martin it looks like cheep poultry could be also a thing of the past.

To be totally honest I think most if not all the farmers get the short end of the stick, it seems that most folks are only concerned about paying the cheapest price possible without realizing the work and effort that goes into getting the food we eat to our tables by the farmers

I for one think that we should be looking at the quality rather than the quantity

Ok; that's enough of me being on a soapbox

Only on last thing; It seems that everything I wrote in a paper for my finals in 64 for the Meat Trades Public Health and Meat Inspection exams is coming true :shock: :(
But what do I know
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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby Thewitt » Thu May 08, 2014 10:20 am

Premium pork belly here is going for 4.90 a pound.

Wet Market pork belly is $2.29 a pound.

No PEDv though.
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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby DiggingDogFarm » Thu May 08, 2014 1:47 pm

Since prices are expected to rise further I put 12 butts in the freezer today at $1.79 a pound.


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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby Tasso » Thu May 08, 2014 4:23 pm

Good job! I don't have the freezer space for that many, but if I could find butts for $1.79 a pound, I'd buy as many as I could fit.
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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby johngaltsmotor » Fri May 09, 2014 4:25 pm

I agree, I need to run out and grab supplies for Mothers Day dinner, but any spare space in the shopping cart will be devoted to "inexpensive" pork.
The plus side is that putting it in the deep freeze essentially takes care of the trichinae treatment for dry sausage. Kills 2 pigs with one stone.
Everything around here is up about $1/pound in the past month. Somebody buy those piglets some Pepto-Bismol or Immodium, this could get really painful.
Pigs are magical creatures.... they turn vegetables into BACON!!
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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby BriCan » Sat May 10, 2014 4:19 am

I was supposed to get my prices today for next week.

I am still waiting so it looks like I will not know anything until Monday

:cry: :cry: :cry:
But what do I know
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Re: PEDv and pork prices

Postby yotmon » Sun May 18, 2014 1:55 pm

Was in Cosco (UK) this afternoon and they were selling US boneless pork loins @£4.99 per kilo. Works out at $3.81 per British pound. Wouldn't have thought that they would have been exporting with a supply problem at home.
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