by Wunderdave » Thu May 03, 2012 10:27 pm
The amount of juice and flavor you lose by poking a hole in meat is pretty insignificant, and when compared to the amount you'd lose by overcooking something, it's fairly nil.
If we're talking about whole muscle roasts here, the juices you're worried about (in a properly cooked roast) are bound within and between the muscle fibers. There's not a non-permeable membrane on the surface of a piece of meat that keeps those juices in. In a way, you're sliding a temperature probe between the muscle fibers. Some juices might escape just because you create a route for them to gather and run out, but it's not that big of a deal.
When you cook meat, the muscle fibers contract. That's why a pork chop curls when you fry it on a griddle. The same principle applies to overcooking, but to a greater extreme and throughout the meat. This essentially squeezes the moisture that was in them out, and that's why overcooked meat dries out.
Now, if you're talking about sausages in casings, some juices will certainly escape if you pierce the casing. However, hopefully you're cooking more than one at a time, and you can "sacrifice" one sausage. The other way to test sausage with a probe thermometer is to insert it in the end of the link, where the next sausage would've attached. There will naturally be a hole there, and you won't have to pierce to the casing.
As to your question, there's no way to measure the internal temperature of meat using the surface temperature without serious data and math about the cooking medium, cooking time, the size of meat, and the type of meat. Even different pieces of the same type of cut will have different thermal characteristics depending on the marbling and other properties of the meat tissue you're cooking.
Either learn the timing or learn the tactile properties of a properly cooked piece of meat, or use your probe thermometer and don't worry about the half CC of juices that escape. That half CC is nothing compared to what you would lose by overcooking or by failing to rest before slicing.